Jueves 15 de Noviembre – Sesiones de la Tarde

La teoría cuantitativa del dinero es un instrumento útil para analizar la teoría y la política monetaria. En ella se puede expresar la economía real y monetaria, estudiar diversos escenarios y analizar diversas reglas monetarias como el inflation targeting, la regla de Friedman y la regla de Hayek. Una de sus máximas virtudes es lo fácil que es expresar sus tres versiones en términos empíricos, aunque también tiene sus límites. Las magnitudes se miden en distintos momentos; la información llega demasiado tarde; y no incluye precios relativos, lo que le impide mostrar el efecto Cantillon.

We look at a panel of Latin American countries from 1970 and 2016 to enquire how exchange rate pass-through has changed over time, and whether this owes to monetary or real shocks hitting the economy. We estimate conventional pass-through measures, both short and long run; then we obtain rolling estimates of those measures and relate them to monetary and real variables using fixed effect models. We find that: in keeping with previous studies, pass-through coefficients have fallen sharply in recent decades in Latin America; money growth tends to be strongly associated to short-run exchange rate pass through, with a small influence of real shocks such as terms-of-trade changes; money growth is also associated to long-run pass-through, while terms of trade shocks are more statistically significant. Results are consistent with the hypothesis that ERPT changes with the kind of shock and the monetary policy response to it.

This paper explores the effects of currency depreciations on output for the main Latin-American countries that are currently using Inflation Targeting. We build a simple model that shows that contractionary effects from devaluations may lead to instability when monetary policy is conducted using a standard Taylor Rule. We show that a policy that keeps the interest rate fixed is sometimes preferable. Finally, we explore a family of VAR models for Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru, for the last decades, and we find that short-run contractionary effects from devaluations are present.

Es bien conocido que el Déficit Fiscal genera deterioro en el Tipo de Cambio Real. Sin embargo, la composición del Déficit Fiscal, ya sea generado por incremento de Gasto o Reducción de Impuestos puede resultar en efectos disímiles. En este trabajo se analiza y se cuantifica el impacto diferencial generado por incrementos de Gastos en Consumo Público, en Inversión Pública y en Reducción de Impuestos sobre el Tipo de Cambio Real. Para ello se desarrolla un Modelo de Equilibrio General Dinámico y Estocástico con Sector Gobierno y Externo el cual luego es calibrado y simulado para Argentina. Se concluye que el Déficit Fiscal originado en reducción de Impuestos puede mejorar el Tipo de Cambio Real mientras que el generado por cualquier incremento de Gasto lo deteriora. A su vez el deterioro en el Tipo de Cambio Real resulta mayor cuando el Gasto Público es aplicado a Consumo Público que cuando se lo destina a Inversión Pública.

Using a sample covering 46 advanced and emerging economies over 1990-2017, it is found that large current account deficits are reversed significantly faster than what forecasters anticipate. In addition, large current account deficits are followed by negative surprises in economic growth, low asset returns and drops in sentiment. These regularities are observed for advanced and emerging economies. Analyses for different sample periods do not point to a gradual reduction in the reported patterns. These findings are indicative of systematic neglect of vulnerabilities and have implications for the understanding of past economic events and the design of macro-prudential policies.

El aumento del ingreso de un miembro del hogar puede conducir a cambios en su poder de decisión al interior del mismo y, como consecuencia, traducirse en efectos sobre algunas dimensiones específicas. En este trabajo se estiman los efectos de una política de trasferencias de ingresos a hogares de bajos recursos en Uruguay (PANES) sobre la probabilidad de divorcio/separación, cambios en la estructura de los hogares, distribución de las tareas domésticas y la probabilidad de que las mujeres sean jefas de hogar. Para ello, se explota la discontinuidad en la asignación al programa resultado del indicador de elegibilidad (ICC). Los resultados indican que la asistencia social redujo la probabilidad de separación para aquellas personas que se encontraban en pareja e introdujo estabilidad en el número de integrantes del hogar. Además estos resultados muestran cierta persistencia en el tiempo una vez que dejan de percibir el beneficio, al menos en el muy corto plazo. Sin embargo, no se encontró que quien recibe la transferencia cambie su condición respecto a realizar las tareas del hogar o cambios en la probabilidad de que las mujeres, principales receptoras de la asistencia, sean jefas de hogar.

Since the last decade most countries in Latin America have experienced substantial changes in their social policies implementing a set of non-contributory social assistance benefit programs. There is a permanent debate from the policy makers and academics about the direct and indirect labor market effects of these programs. The most concerning discussion in the region is the unintended incentive towards informality that these policies could generate. This paper estimates the fiscal cost and distributive impact of this labor distortion conducted by the two main non-contributory programs in Argentina and Uruguay: Asignación Universal por Hijo (AUH) and Asignaciones Familiares – Plan de Equidad (AFAM-PE), respectively. We find that the substitution effect from formal to informal employment attributed to each program represents a relevant portion of the total budget of these policies. The results also reflect that a simple fiscal incidence analysis of these programs that ignore the consequences of these labor incentives on the market income distribution will exaggerate the true effect of these policies on the disposable or final income poverty and inequality.

El trabajo presenta una visión general sobre las perspectivas de avanzar en la cadena de valor (industrialización y red de proveedores) del cobre, oro, plata y litio en Argentina.

En este trabajo presentamos una estimación cuantitativa del impacto sobre la productividad agropecuaria de la investigación pública en ciencia y tecnología calculando tasas internas de retorno y ratios beneficio costo. Las estimaciones muestran una elasticidad de la TFP con respecto al stock de conocimiento público que varían en un rango entre 0.20 y 0.34 dependiendo de las especificaciones. Estos valores son similares a los reportados en trabajos previos que utilizan metodologías comparables. También consistente con la literatura previa se muestra que la inversión en investigación agrícola tiene tasas de retorno positivas y significativas. Las TIR estimadas varían entre el 6% y el 12% dependiendo de las tasas de descuento y especificaciones definidas. Asimismo, los ratios Beneficio-Costo estimados son relativamente elevados, entre 35 y 63, para los distintos escenarios definidos, implicando también un alto retorno asociado a los gastos en actividades de investigación.

In recent years, a wide array of policies of public financing has been implemented in Argentina towards small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). However, the effect of these programs based on indicators regarding financial and productive performance of the beneficiary firms has not been analyzed so far. This paper assess the impact of three SME finance programs: FONAPYME, RBT and SGR. Based on firm-level administrative data covering the universe of formal Argentinean firms from 2007 to 2016 and combining matching method techniques with the fixed effects model, we estimate the causal effect of these programs on beneficiary firms’ financing, growth and competitiveness. Our results show, first, that the programs effectively foster the probability of accessing to finance and the volume of debt of firms that already accessed. Through this channel, they also enhance employment, average wage and, at to some extent, export behavior. The impact comes primarily from young companies, and particularly with respect to employment, from small-sized companies. When comparing these programs, it seems that the RBT’s rate grant is the one that presents the most profound effects upon the firms’ overall performance.

This paper investigates empirically the cyclical lending patterns of national development banks. To this purpose, we compare the lending activity of national development banks, across crisis and normal times, with that of public, foreign and domestic private banks using information on the annual financial statements of 336 major banks from 31 Latin American and Caribbean countries over the period of 1995- 2014. Using dynamic panel regressions that allow controlling for loan demand and other factors, we find robust evidence that national development and public retail-oriented banks have counteracted the slowdown in the lending activity of private banks during crises by significantly increasing their provision of loans. Our results are particularly important when considering productive lending to the corporate sector. The findings suggest that governments have played an active countercyclical role in their banking systems directly through both national development and retail-oriented public banks. Certainly, national development banks’ size, governance structure and financial condition play a key role in determining that the countercyclical response is effective in mitigating the macroeconomic effects of financial turmoil.

This paper estimates the effects of a childbirth grant policy introduced in Armenia in 2009 in response to low fertility rates. We employ a quasi-experimental strategy exploiting the timing of the policy change and eligibility rule—women could get a larger transfer only for third and higher order births. We find an overall positive impact of the policy on the fertility of women who already had two births and we do not find heterogeneity in response to the policy by wealth, schooling or residence in rural versus urban area. While Armenia has one of the highest sex imbalances at birth, we do not find that additional newborns are significantly more likely to be male. We do find, however, that parents without any son are more likely to have an additional birth after the policy change in comparison to parents who already have at least one son.

Este trabajo estudia el efecto de la legalización del aborto en Uruguay a fines de 2012 sobre indicadores de cuidados prenatales y salud neonatal de los hijos de madres adolescentes (15 a 19 años). Los resultados señalan que todos los indicadores de cuidados prenatales -total de consultas e inicio de la atención prenatal- mejoraron como consecuencia del mayor acceso a interrumpir un embarazo. A pesar de esto, no se observan efectos significativos sobre los indicadores de salud del recién nacido.

Se calcula la transmisión de la variación del precio internacional del petróleo crudo a los precios internos del petróleo y los combustibles líquidos en la Argentina entre enero de 2005 y junio de 2017. Se distinguen distintos periodos identificados según la variación del precio internacional del crudo. Los cálculos revelan una alta variabilidad de todos los precios. Se estima un modelo dinámico siendo los principales resultados que hay bajo traspaso del precio internacional al precio interno del crudo, que el traspaso del precio interno del crudo al precio sin impuestos de los combustibles es similar a la relación entre esas variables a nivel internacional. que el impuesto a los combustibles se mantiene estable a lo largo del tiempo y se traslada a los consumidores y que el traspaso del precio internacional al precio final de los combustibles se aproxima a la unidad. Existe asimetría en la respuesta del precio de los combustibles siendo mayor para la baja del precio del petróleo. Se vincula la disociación del precio relativo externo-interno con la evolución de la producción, consumo y exportación de petróleo.

In this paper we analyze the distributional impact of the gradual reduction of energy subsidies in Argentina implemented since 2016. As the policy reform also includes the introduction of a scheme to protect the less well-off families (social tariff), we also review how well the targeting mechanism works. We apply the traditional benefit-incidence analysis using households survey data, focusing on residential natural gas and electricity subsidies in the Buenos Aires Metropolitan Area –AMBA. Our results support the finding that gradual increases in energy tariffs, coupled with the current social tariff scheme, makes the system less pro-rich, but it fails to fully protect the more vulnerable portions of the population. The distributional impact of the full removal of subsidies (other than the social tariffs) results from the interaction between those that qualify for the social tariff, the coverage of the gas and electricity networks, and the energy consumption across different quintiles of the income distribution.

In general, central banks are concerned with keeping the inflation rate stable while also sustaining output close to an efficient level. Under “inflation targeting”, forecasts of the evolution of the general price level are an essential input for policy decisions and these are usually released in quarterly “Inflation Reports”. The costs and benefits of transparency in monetary policy are widely debated, but the need for a central bank to incorporate forecasts of future inflation is broadly agreed. In short, forecasting inflation is of foremost importance to households, businesses, and policymakers. In 2016, the Central Bank of Argentina began announcing and inflation targeting scheme. In this context, providing the authorities with good estimates of relevant macroeconomic variables turns out to be crucial to make the pertinent corrections to reach the desired policy goals. This paper develops a group of models to forecast inflation in Argentina and conducts a comparison of their predictive ability at different horizons. Our variety of models includes: (i) univariate time series models, (ii) VARs, Bayesian VARs and Time-Varying Parameter VARs, and (iii) conventional New Keynesian Phillips Curves including one that incorporates money to evaluate its information content as a predictor of inflation. We compare the predictive performance of the different methods using the Giacomini-White test over the relevant horizons for monetary policy decisions.

Having a correct assessment of current business cycle conditions is one of the major challenges for monetary policy conduct. Given that GDP figures are available with a significant delay central banks are increasingly using Nowcasting as a useful tool for having an immediate perception of economic conditions. We develop a GDP growth Nowcasting exercise using a broad and restricted set of indicators to construct different models including dynamic factor models as well as a FAVAR. We compare each individual model with alternative combinations in a pseuro-real time out-ofsample exercise and find an improvement in predictive performance using the Giacomini and White (2004) test. Finally we introduce a DFM state-space approach, being able to measure the impact of data releases or news on sequential forecast.

En este trabajo proponemos un modelo que integra la competencia estratégica con la delegación de las decisiones de producción y la forma de remunerar a los agentes dentro de la empresa. De esta manera, se trata de un modelo principal-multi-agente, donde el dueño de la firma (principal) delega en los trabajadores (agentes) las decisiones de competencia, a través de la propia determinación del proceso de producción. No obstante, la firma puede influir en los incentivos de sus trabajadores al elegir entre dos esquemas de pago: participación de las ganancias proporcional al esfuerzo realizado (RSP) o pago por unidad producida (PR). Encontramos que PR es una estrategia estrictamente dominante cuando la cantidad de trabajadores contratados por cada firma es baja, pero cuando la fuerza laboral se expande el equilibrio de Nash se comporta como un juego de la gallina, donde las empresas buscan diferenciarse en la forma que remuneran a sus trabajadores. En este sentido, encontramos que la cantidad de trabajadores necesaria para que las empresas elijan esquemas de pago diferentes depende de la productividad y el costo del esfuerzo de los trabajadores, pero no del tamaño del mercado.

In this paper we propose a structural method for estimating the efficiency and procurement costs associated with bidding rings in a first-price sealed-bid auction. It is based on the auction estimation literature (Guerre, Perrigne, and Vuong [2000], GPV 2000) and is consistent with damage assessment methodologies used in antitrust cases, in the sense that we build a butfor (competitive) scenario and then estimate the differences between the but-for scenario and the factual one (White, Marshall, and Kennedy [2006]).In a first stage we estimate pseudo-costs for all serious bidders following GPV 2000. We then estimate the relationship between the recovered costs and the observed bids of non-colluded bidders and use it to calculate the counterfactual bids of colluded firms. We apply our methodology to California highway procurement data after first identifying a potential set of colluders using standard tests in the literature. We find that the procurement cost associated to the four members ring identified is 4%, that total profits for the ring are 26% higher than in the competitive scenario and that there is no efficiency cost.